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RUSI: Modern Deterence Conference 2018 Securing Societies
The USI of the ACT Council is delighted to announce a presentation by former USI Vice President and long-time student of Iran, Ian Dudgeon, entitled Trump's Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal: Winners and Losers. The presentation will be held in the Spender Theatre, Australian Defence College, Weston Creek, on Thursday 18 October 2018, commencing at 1800 hours.
On 8 May 2018 President Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (formally, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action - JCPOA). Initially, Trump threatened withdrawal, and the reimposition of severe JCPOA-related sanctions, unless European JCPOA signatories (Britain, France and Germany - Russia and China are the other signatories) and Iran struck a new deal that rectified his perceived flaws in the deal. Trump then broadened his demands to include that Iran cease its other 'destabilising' regional activities. Trump has threatened to break Iran's economy, and precipitate 'regime change' through internal dissidence, if his demands are not met. Trump's demands have not been met due to push-back by Iran and other JCPOA signatories. The first of the reimposed sanctions took effect in early August, the remainder will take effect in November.
But Trump's demands and actions threaten a much wider destabilisation. At stake is the potential survivability of Iran's moderate government, and its ability to contain the hardliners through greater economic and constructive political engagement with the West. What will happen if Trump does break Iran's economy; will Iran, a state of 82 million people, descend into chaos, or worse, and what impact would that have on regional stability? Trump has also precipitated direct confrontation with European signatories who want an intact JCPOA and lifted economic sanctions as a lever to negotiate Iran's other destabilising activities. Also at stake are billions of dollars of trade and investment in Iran by all JCPOA signatories and Iran's other major trading partners, and the status of US global trade and international financial systems generally.
Ian will discuss these issues, and likely winners and losers, in what promises to be a fascinating presentation.
There is no charge for attendance, but registration is required, either on the website here, or by contacting the USI office (E: email@example.com; T: 02 6266 3446).
Please join us for networking in the ADC Mess from 1700 hours.
Members and guests are reminded that photo ID is required for access to the Weston Creek campus.
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