Transcript

RUSSIA'S SECURITY OUTLOOK AND PERSPECTIVE

His Excellency Leonid Moiseev
Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Australia

Presentation to the Royal United Services Institute of South Australia
1 March 2004

Ladies and gentlemen!

It is a great pleasure to have this opportunity to address members and guests of the Royal United Services Institute of South Australia. The Institute has a thoroughly deserved reputation for fostering discussion of national security and defence matters.

Introduction

I would like to focus my talk today on Russia's vision of the new international environment in which every country is now operating, and how Russia can contribute to greater global security.

I thought it might be timely - especially given the character of our gathering here this afternoon - to canvass Russia's perspective on most recent developments - the situation in Iraq and the fight against the global threat of terrorism.

Russia of today

First of all, I'd like to tell you in brief what is today's Russia.

Russia emerged in the wake of the Soviet Union's disintegration in 1991 as the biggest country in the world, with vast natural resources, with great human, technological and scientific potential, and with the second largest military arsenal. But its economy was a shambles, with inflation reaching several hundred percent a year, and the majority of its population barely surviving below the poverty line.

Today, Russia is one of the fastest growing economies in the world, having registered 30% industrial and 20% agricultural growth in the last four years. The inflation rate is about 10%, and budget and trade surpluses reach several billion dollars a year. Pensions are being paid and wages restored. Russia is a contributor internationally rather than a beggar.

We are the number one energy producer in the world. Russia is now a member of the exclusive club of eight most economically developed countries (G8). The International Herald Tribune wrote on February 3, 2004: "President Putin has assumed in Russia a role similar to that of Charles de Gaulle in France - a man who pulled his country back from the precipice."

Russia is no longer, using Sir Winston Churchill's unforgettable phrase, "a mystery wrapped in enigma". Colin Powell, the US Secretary of State, observed recently: "Today, Russia is more democratic than not. We should be patient as Russia develops its democratic institutions and as remnants of Soviet-era corruption are rooted out."

We have a still very weak, but an already established multi-party system. We hold regular elections at all levels, beginning from the local and ending with the federal. Presidential elections, due in Russia in two weeks from now, as well as the parliamentary elections held in December last year, will undoubtedly mark the starting point of a new stage in Russia's progress towards modern society.

Continuity and stability are the key words. We concentrate on economic and social reforms with a target of doubling GDP in the coming decade. This would enable Russia to significantly increase living standards of its people, eradicate poverty, consolidate civil society, and re-establish itself as one of the greatest powers in the world.

To achieve these goals we need peace and good relations with our neighbors and all the major world powers. We do not regard any country as our enemy or potential adversary. We do not uphold the ideology of global Messianism that was a trademark of the former Soviet Union. Russia's foreign policy is becoming more and more pragmatic and down-to-earth - we concentrate on the pursuit of national interests in an increasingly practical way.

President Putin has thus summed up Russia's attitude to the outside world as: "We are fully aware of what Russia is, what place it occupies in the world, what are our capabilities… Russia, with all the problems it has, with all its traditions, with all its national interests, is a country which will never serve anybody's political interests. …Russia wants to be, and can be, a reliable partner."

Russia's security environment

The end of the Cold War was widely perceived in Russia as a starting point of a new era characterized by a drastic decrease in traditional external threats and the disappearance of the nuclear stand-off with the United States - America and NATO were no longer enemies but partners. Relations with China - the long-time security obsession of the former Soviet Union - were on the mend.

However, this new enthusiasm was not fully supported by reality. By the end of the 1990s a more realistic and sober approach prevailed. We realized that NATO was not going to dismantle following the disappearance of the Warsaw Pact. On the contrary, NATO was actively absorbing former Soviet allies in Eastern Europe and rapidly expanding eastward towards Russian borders. The United States was speeding up the creation of new, sophisticated offensive weapon systems, including nuclear weapons, and increasing its first strike capabilities. Today, 95% of America's nuclear arsenal is still directed against Russia.

Facing these new realities we naturally couldn't escape the feeling of growing vulnerability. We didn't feel comfortable because Russia retained only 3 out of the 7 early warning radar stations built by the former Soviet Union on its territory. We didn't feel comfortable because our space satellites monitoring missile launches were rapidly ageing and we didn't have the money to replace them. We didn't feel comfortable because our strategic nuclear missiles were, according to some predictions, due to be decommissioned by the year 2012, and our budget restraints didn't allow us to replace them by then.

Our experience in Chechnya prompted us to speed up military reform. In recent months our army, after many years of almost total neglect, has started to conduct large-scale exercises. New weapon systems are being successfully developed. We scrutinized military campaigns in Yugoslavia, Afghanistan and Iraq and drew lessons for ourselves. And, what probably are the most important security developments, we started to restore our satellite monitoring system and to modernize our strategic nuclear deterrent.

I would like to emphasize that we do not want to alarm anybody. We do not want to revive the Cold War era's "rocket rattle". We still challenge the USA to remove at least 50% of the thousands of warheads now deployed on each side. We want to proceed in earnest with the dismantling of nuclear-tipped missiles in full accord with the agreement reached with the Bush administration. All we want is a fair go approach.

Russia and the fight against terrorism

Russia first confronted the terrorist threat two years before September 11. Three apartment buildings were blown up in Moscow and other Russian cities. Several hundred people perished. President Putin, addressing the Millenium Summit, proposed that the international community unite in its efforts to combat the growing threat of international terrorism.

Russia joined with the United States to destroy the repressive Taliban regime in Afghanistan and its shelter for al-Qaeda. We are ready to work closely with other countries to hunt down terrorist organizations, cut off their finances and disrupt their operations. Moscow is a committed partner in combating the global spread of weapons of mass destruction. We are productively co-operating with the United States, China, Japan and South Korea over the challenges posed by North Korea's nuclear program.

We believe that the common interest of all major powers in defeating terrorism offers a rare and remarkable opportunity to create an effective universal anti-terrorist framework, building on the existing UN structures, G8 mechanisms, and other international and regional structures.
Unfortunately, unilateral action taken against Iraq resulted in serious strains in relations among key international players. We believed at the time, and still believe now, that the war was a big mistake, a miscalculation. It didn't make the world a safer place. It jeopardized the emerging new spirit of common purpose.

Unfortunately, the United States chose to neglect history and other countries' experience. Based on the situation in Chechnya, we know that it is relatively easy to achieve military victory, but is extremely difficult to win over the sympathy and support of the population.

The United States took on a huge responsibility in terms of both material and human losses. Now the Coalition confronts the even more challenging tasks of winning the sympathies of the Iraqis and getting the Muslim and Arab countries on its side. It's time now to bridge the split that emerged among the world's major powers over Iraq and move ahead. There is a general agreement now that Iraq's problems can be effectively solved only with involvement of the Iraqi people themselves, and that the UN's role has to be increased. We can build on that. Russia is ready to participate in the post war reconstruction of Iraq.

Conclusion

Ladies and gentlemen,

New Russia has made its choice. We will continue to build an open, democratic society underpinned by a strong and robust market economy. We will be open to the outside world. We will fight together with our friends and partners, including Australia, against the global threat of terrorism. Of course, in doing so, we shall be guided by our national interests.

It is a strategic choice for us. Russians, like Australians, like Americans, and all other people, have a right to dream of a better world. I think Russia's long history of unimaginable sufferings and sacrifices entitles us to such a dream.

HE Leonid Moiseev

Ambassador of the Russian Federation to Australia

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